“A boxer, like a writer, must stand alone,” so
wrote A.J. Liebling, a journalistic contender in his own right. Similarly, in the squared circle of knock-down, drag-out consumer electronics, a video display must stand alone too. Or at least be able to outsell its competitors. So far, LCD has consistently delivered powerful uppercuts to plasma's glass jaw. In the lightweight, less than 50-inch market, LCD is already wearing the belt. And LCD is even getting competitive at heavyweight
big-screen sizes. Market research firm Displaybank is predicting that by 2015, the
LCD portion of TV shipments will grow to 66%. Is plasma down for the count?
Actually, no.
In the first quarter of 2008, plasma shipments were up 56% from a year ago. Interestingly, PDP has been a strong seller in China, and in other developing markets. Call it the Olympic Games Effect - both Samsung and LG have stepped up PDP production to meet a recent surge in demand. So, at least for now, plasma is not a TKO.
On the other hand, it's on the ropes. After the Olympic Games, any expansion plans will be in jeopardy, and some PDP production lines may shut down. Long-time PDP leaders are making sure that they have plenty of internal capacity or supplier sources for LCD panels. According to Displaybank, despite the 56% pop for year-over-year, shipments of PDP dropped 15% during in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 (Q4 is always a hot Q). Unless some new breakthrough makes plasma a lot better or cheaper, it may go down, and never wake up. Terrific technology, fighting against terrifically tough competition.
Incidentally, the graphic at the top of this post is a Phenakistoscope created by Eadweard Muybridge in 1893. It is titled, The Zoopraxiscope – Athletes – Boxing." The images are on a lithograph disc; when spun, it gives the illusion of two men boxing. To view this, just click on the graphic. Cooler than either plasma or LCD, I think. —Ken C. Pohlmann
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